Gold Rush or Just a Streak?

Gold had a good run for twelve years but has fallen by as much as 20% this year alone. Is that set to continue? It looks as if gold will increase marginally again this week and may even continue reaching a peak next month due to the weak dollar and the fact that the world’s highest consumer of gold (India) will be entering a festive season typically associated with marriages and gold-buying time. But, will investors soon be losing interest in gold? Prices are predicted to increase by at least 3.8% on average (as in previous years) in November. It may even be beyond that percentage increase due to the weakened dollar.

  • 68% of those people polled by CNBC believed that gold would increase again this week after last week topped the highest price in gold for the past four weeks.
  • Now, there is some belief that there will be a high that goes beyond August’s $1, 400.
  • Only 18% of people believe that gold will drop this week while the rest see prices remaining stable.

    Gold Rush or Gold Streak?

    Gold Rush or Gold Streak?

Bullion increased last week by 1.7% and that was mainly due to the lower-than-expected US non-farm-payrolls data that was finally released by the administration for the first time since the government shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics was inevitably one of the non-essential federal government departments that were asked not to come into work. Why on earth do we have non-essential government departments anyhow and why did they come back to work? It was probably only so the administration could inform us that despite the shutdown there was a 0.1% drop in unemployment from 7.3% to 7.2%.

My, the economy is really taking off! You’ll have to hold on to your hat President Obama as the wind that gets whipped up might just knock it off your head as the people stampede to the factories to get to work. Of course, the real unemployment figure is still roughly nearly 15% and that looks like it is set to increase even more as people become more and more discouraged about looking for work. Dropping out of the work market means dropping out of the figures.

But, the current situation means that the Federal Reserve will definitely not be able to withdraw its stimulus plan and Quantitative Easing will end up becoming a lengthy drawn-out process that could be equated with doing nothing more than lining the pockets of the banks so that they can create the next bubble on the stock market. The dollar will be weakened even further by the mere fact that tapering has yet again been postponed. It’s also lower still as a result of the shutdown and worry over the ability to pay back debt for the US.

This week it is expected that the two-day policy meeting for the Federal Reserve will end in an announcement that the easy money will continue well into 2014 and even beyond. Normally it’s loose lips that sink ships. But, this ship will be well and truly sunk by the loose money of Ben Bernanke and President Obama’s monetary policy that is far from conventional.

There are some analysts that believe that the strife for the dollar will bring about a rally in gold that will amount to +$200 in the next few weeks. There are even some that expect gold to go beyond $1, 500 by the end of December 2013. That would mean getting back to levels that have not been seen since April 2013. Gold came down pretty quickly after QE tapering was being bandied about and it could go up just as quickly now that tapering is being postponed. The dire situation of the US will certainly give gold a push and that could be good business to invest in. US debt is not going to go away and the country will end up spending more and more. People will inevitably go back into gold to secure their money. The price of gold can only go up and now is the time to cash in on that.

If the US is going to be in a position to deal with its national debt, paying it down, then it will have to let a little bit of inflation creep in there. That in itself will be more fuel to the fire and will drive up the price of gold again.

So is it a gold rush or a gold streak? Most people will be betting on the fact that this is not just a short burst and that it will last a lot longer than a wet firework that fizzles out.

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  • tom kauser

    Reply Reply October 28, 2013

    As Art Cashin is fond of saying "keep some gold coins in pocket to bribe the border guard"! I suspect that come FEB.14 2014 citizens will be repeating Art's wisdom more and more to each other? And why not silver or tungstan? Because China and India like the gold for more than just pocket currency?

  • tom kauser

    Reply Reply October 28, 2013

    I suspect that a rally needs a cost of production higher than a forward selling price can handle and mines start shutting down or Banker and border guard are not one in the same person?

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